TEAMS I LIKE LESS THAN MOST PEOPLE:
Louisville- I like their defensive ability, and it's easy to look good running a suffocating full-court press when they're up 20, but I don't like how many close games they blew in the regular season. Who takes their last shot? Their lack of poise will come back to haunt them somewhere before the Final Four. (Important disclaimer: I hope I'm wrong on the 'Ville. Due to preseason bets and things of that nature, I stand to make some money if Louisville goes all the way.)
New Mexico- It never works out well for Mountain West teams that receive surprisingly high seeds. Plus no team with Hermes the Elf Dentist running the point is going far in the NCAA tournament.
SYRACUSE- They're ripe for an upset. Montana shoots the three ball well (which is bad news for 'Cuse's 2-3 zone), and Jim Boeheim might as well be a library book, he's so checked out right now.
KU- We'll cover this later.
TEAMS I LIKE MORE THAN MOST PEOPLE:
UNLV- They underachieved all year, but they've got some studs and can score with anyone. They can't play defense, but that isn't a big a concern with their matchups. I've got them going to the Sweet 16 and losing to Indiana in a shootout.
Davidson- They've won 17 in a row, and are definitely under-seeded as a 14. Heads up, Marquette.
Arizona- Too many people are ignoring how well they played early on in the year. Their guard play is outstanding, which is always a key in March.
UPSETS I ALMOST PICKED BUT COULDN'T PULL THE TRIGGER:
Pittsburgh over Gonzaga, North Carolina over KU, St. Louis over Louisville, Arizona over Ohio St., Oregon over Oklahoma St.
UPSETS I DID PICK:
Montana over Syracuse, Davidson over Marquette, VCU over KU, Wisconsin over Gonzaga (What? Wisconsin?)
PICKS I CAN'T BELIEVE I MADE
Anything involving Wisconsin. I've made plenty of money over the years betting against them in the tournament; for some reason I feel different about them this year. Let's hope it doesn't turn out like the Super Bowl National Anthem, where I bet the under for the first time in my whole life, and then the over got crushed by an entire minute.
THIS TEAM'S BEST IS BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE'S BEST:
I like figuring out this team somewhere during the season; it's incredibly helpful for gambling purposes. Last year it was Kentucky, the year before it was KU, the year before that, Syracuse. This year, it's Indiana. It doesn't necessarily mean they'll win it all, but if they play their perfect game, it doesn't matter what the other team does-- it won't be enough.
THE PART WHERE I TALK ABOUT KU:
So you may have noticed that I picked KU to lose to VCU. I don't have a lot of confidence of KU coming out of their region. If they were in the West, I'd probably pick them to go Final Four, but that South region has too many minefields. Carolina, VCU, Michigan, Florida, Georgetown....yikes. I started out the year thinking the season would be a success if KU made the Sweet 16. Then they started rolling solid teams by 30 and 40 points in December, then won at Ohio St., then started off the Big 12 7-0, and the ceiling was removed. It could be a championship year. But then came the three-game losing streak, including the disastrous TCU game, and I saw what the Jayhawk's basement was. And it ain't pretty. They righted the ship, and looked impressive in the Big 12 tournament....but I can't erase how badly they bottomed out. I can't watch a team play that bad and pick them go to Atlanta coming out of that tough of a region. Plus VCU's havoc defense is not a good set-up for KU and their spotty point guard play, not to mention all the residual feelings from the 2011 Elite 8 game. Is it weird that I'm more scared of VCU than I would be against Duke, or Gonzaga, or Miami, or any number of high seeds? I wouldn't be shocked if KU makes it to the Final Four, but I'd be pleasantly surprised. I never expected this year's team to be a 1 seed (again). Either way, it's already been an incredibly fun year. I've thoroughly enjoyed this year's squad.
MY ELITE 8:
Louisville vs. Duke, Wisconsin vs. Ohio St. (I haven't even finished typing this sentence and I already regret that pick), VCU vs. Florida, Indiana vs. Miami.
MY FINAL 4:
Duke, Ohio St., Florida, Indiana
MY CHAMPION:
Indiana over Duke
Enjoy the best weekend of the year and Rock Chalk.
