Just a disclaimer: I know that these are all great teams. The only reason I write negatively about most of them is because I'm trying to explain why I think they WON'T win the title.
Duke: I will give them some props, because they're much better than I thought they'd be before the year started. I don't see them making a Final 4 run, though. Smaller teams that live and die by the three almost never make deep runs in March. All it takes is one off night shooting, or one matchup against a dominant big man, to put Duke in bad shape.
Tennessee: Fun team to watch, great regular season team, no chance of winning a title. No way a team that resembles the Grand Forks Air Force Base city league team for at least one 5 minute stretch every game is winning the national title. It's almost like Bruce Pearl tells them during a TV timeout "OK guys, until the next huddle, you are allowed to play absolutely out of control, playground, Above the Rim-style basketball, but then you have to go back to running our offense. Promise?" It's all fine when their fast-break 1-on-3 three pointers and alley-oop dunks are working, but it's another thing when they're turning it over 6 times in a row and finding themselves on the wrong end of 14-2 runs to teams like Arkansas. Still scared of Chris Lofton, though.
Texas: After the unreal Big 12 championship game between Texas and KU, everyone is starting to pile on their bandwagon a bit, at least in part because lots of people are dying for a reason to pick against Memphis. I was driving the Texas bandwagon earlier this year, but if this makes any sense, I actually feel worse about them after that game than I was before. They played out of their minds, and still got beat by 10. I was more impressed earlier this year when they won at UCLA and hammered Tennessee. Either way, a team with wins over 3 top 5 teams has to be taken seriously. Add in the home court advantage in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Texas in the Final 4.
Georgetown: Big East teams are usually tough to beat in March, and this team is the prototype. Lots of seniors, lots of high-basketball I.Q. guys, lots of guys who know exactly what their role is and follow it to a T, without doing anything stupid. That's maybe one of the biggest compliments you can pay a college team. Even the best teams in the country are prone to doing dumb things, that's just the way it is when it's a bunch of 19, 20, and 21 year olds are playing basketball. But watch G'town play and count how many times you say "that was fucking dumb." It's not often. Just a tough out. I'll be just fine if someone feels like upsetting them before the Elite 8.
Memphis: Normally this is where I would go off on Memphis for not playing anybody good, Conference USA sucks, blah blah blah. Not true this year, they played a great non-conference sched. But don't worry, I still have problems with them. One is their free-throw shooting. You can't tell me that you can be one of the worst couple teams IN THE ENTIRE NATION at shooting free throws and that it won't haunt you in March. One of the funny things is that the guy who is most guilty of trying to convince me that it won't haunt them is their coach, John Calipari. Normally a coach is the first guy to point out his team's shortcomings. Well, at least good coaches. Not Mr. Calipari. He tells everyone who will listen that their free throws will be fine when it matters. So what happened in the one game they lost this year? Shitty free throw shooting down the stretch. This ties into my second reason they won't win the title: John Calipari. No doubt he can recruit, but I'll never take his teams seriously in March until he actually turns his talent into a championship, or at least more than an Elite 8. The last reason I don't think they'll win it all is their character. This is another reflection of their coach. When the coach whines/talks shit/takes shots at other coaches, well then, it's pretty clear how his players are gonna act. Watch Memphis's body language if the other team is going on a run, or if their shots aren't falling. It's brutal. What happens if they are in the Sweet 16 against Pittsburgh (a very mentally tough team) and Memphis gets down double digits early in the second half? Are they coming back from that? Maybe, but I'm not betting on it. You'd have to go back to the Larry Johnson-era UNLV team to find a bad character team that won a title. You can go far in the tournament (see: Fab Five) but you're not winning the whole thing.
Kansas: If I'm picking on pure basketball ability, KU is the best team in the country. They can put up 100 points without making a three pointer, grind it out on defense and win ugly, win with their guards doing the scoring, win with their bigs scoring, basically do everything you could ask a basketball team to do. Alas, it isn't just about that, especially in March. The last few years have been rough as this team has grown up. The first round loss to Bradley in '06 was excused because the core of the team were freshman and sophomores, and Bradley was a tough team from a scrappy conference. The elite 8 loss to UCLA last year was excused because, well, UCLA was just the better team. But this year, we are the better team. Anything less than a Final Four this year and the season will be considered a failure by many. You know the players are feeling this pressure, and as much as I love Bill Self, you can't say that his teams have responded particularly well to pressure. If this team proves to be mentally tougher than the last couple, I'd have to say that they would be cutting down the nets. Let's hope.
North Carolina: I'm more and more scared of this team every time I watch them. It seems like they are finally starting to play D now, which goes along nicely with their 85-points-a-game-offense. Hansbrough is going to get his points, and Lawson is going to do his thing (even if he isn't 100%), that's a given. Most games they play, that alone is enough to win. Their X factor is their outside shooting. It's what cost them in the second half of their Elite 8 game last year when they fell apart. I think the only way this team loses a game is if Ellington and Green are struggling, because there is no one else to hit 3's. This team is deep, talented, and motivated....
UCLA: ....But still not my favorite to win. Since last April, I've said this team was the scariest in the nation, and despite a few iffy games lately, I'm not ready to back off that statement yet. Forget Derrick Rose, I'll take Darren Collison any day. I think he's the best all-around point guard in the country (although Augustin is making it close.) If he is hitting his jumper he is unguardable. Their defense is stifling, their shooting is timely, and with both Collison and Westbrook to handle the ball, they rarely turn it over or take dumb shots. Kevin Love, only a freshman, plays with the level-headedness (probably not a word), smarts, and maturity of a fifth-year senior. This team isn't very deep, but every player in the rotation is skilled. Back-to-back final four trips don't hurt anything, either. This team won't be scared of any situation. And most of all, they find ways to win. Whether it's clutch play down the stretch, brutal foul calls in their favor, or illegal shots from behind the backboard, they just get it done. I'm more impressed that they win these close games than if they would just blow everyone out, because after the first round, there aren't too many blowouts in the tourney, and you're gonna have to win the ugly ones.
Only a couple of hours left.....has anyone else had the CBS college basketball theme song running through their head non-stop for the last 76 hours? Yeah, me neither.
